Been fishing Lake Ontario since 1977; based on many times being 'fooled' by the marine forecast this seems to work well for me.
Based on the forecast the winds were to be SW 30 gusting to 50 that meant we only had a chance of fishing by launching in Hamilton Harbour it was blowing a lot stronger nearer to shore because the warmed up air over the land was being blown to the NE but also the temperature differential between land breeze and over water air was close to 20 deg. C this warmer air was 'rushing' toward the lake's colder air so to speak. In 100 feet of water we still had to contend with 1m whitecapping waves; boat control/speed was almost impossible; we ended up fishing less than 70 feet of water and ended up 5 for 6, 4 lakers - 2 in the 16lb class and a nice 6lb coho which I kept filled with fresh ate alewife; we found the bait, we found the fish. Lakers on the bottom; chrome/blue/black dots Shoehorn was the ticket; others came of a No. 1 watermelon wire dipsey on no. 2 1/2 setting 150 feet out; coho was caught off a rigger 33/60 on a Pro Star monkey dunk spoon.
Back to the wind.
1) Based out of Jordan any wind up to 40 kph is fishable from the SW, S, SE, West is marginal, N, NE, E are no goes.
2) Check both the marine forecast issued at 5:30 by environment Canada and Windytv site or Sailflow; type in your port and you will see current and forecast wind speeds and directions.
3) Be prepared to be surprised (less wind) or disappointed (more wind/wrong direction) on any given day!
4) Several days of E or NE wind can set up large 4 to 6 foot swells which could last a day or so, the wind could be offshore but these swells will be topped off by surface wind blown waves; now you're in a washing machine - this to me in the worst conditions for fishability and comfort. I've had many seasoned sailors succumb to this over the years.
5) In my experience calm days are great but only o.k. for fishing; days with a slight chop on the water seem to be best.
One other thing; I learned the hard way based on surviving Black Sunday back in August 24, 1983 or 84; blue bird day, calm seas, coho schools out in 300 feet of water off Port Credit; once I got out there started hammering them until a squall warning was issued by Env. Canada for the Western basin. Within 10 to 15 minutes the winds were peaking at 80 to 90 kph, waves were about 8 to 10 feet and the tops being wind blown off causing a heavy mist at eye level and I was in a 15 foot boat.....300 boats capsized that day (I was lucky, almost ran out of gas fighting the wind/waves the 2 1/2 hours it took to get back to shore) and two fishermen drowned; since then I promised myself I would not venture out that far with a slower small boat, pay attention to the forecast, pay attention to the weather/conditions and buy a bigger boat (which I did).
Good luck.
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